Finally we look at the overlap years for this update (that's the years that appeared for both the October CET and rainfall analogues) which were - 1903, 1976 and 2004. SST (Sea-Surface-Temperature) anomalies show that there has been a pause in the development of La Nina over the past week with all ENSO regions stable. All February combined flips to mild and wet again and this relatively mild and wet signal continues to all Marchs combined too. The stronger the La Nina gets the milder the signal becomes for winter. We begin the thirteenth winter update with our swingometer which has been updated to the end of the twelfth update. All Decembers combined still has northern blocking and a cold month favoured overall. This years the GWV Winter 2020/21 NAO forecast predicts a neutral NAO with the margin for error potentially swinging the NAO from weakly positive to weakly negative. Given how close SST anomalies look to 2017 we think the margin for error possibly favour neutral to weakly negative for this winter but out central range prediction is a neutral NAO. TWITTERN. IRI (International Research Institute) probability maps show an increased chance of drier than average conditions this winter across northern Europe but probabilities still look very finely balanced for temperature. The northern Pacific remains significantly warmer than average but the past week ahead see SST anomalies cooling down by around 1C in the north eastern Pacific. The long range CFS model indicates zonal winds may stay weaker than average through the autumn. We begin by presenting the GavsWeatherVids swingometer for the first time this season. The massive 2020 Atlantic storm and hurricane season goes on. GavsWeatherVids winter 2020/21 forecast will be released on Wednesday 2nd December. This tenth winter 2020/21 update is now complete. The swingometer now stands at 54% mild against 46% cold. Very soon this hurricane season may officially become Hyperactive. Eurasian snow cover has gone into reverse over the past week with losses in snow cover across both Scandinavia and no gains across Russia. SST (Sea-Surface-Temperature) anomalies in Equatorial Pacific are colder than average with all ENSO regions now reaching required La Nina threshold. All winters combined looks relatively unsettled and quite mild overall with any cold potential late in the winter. This year as we began May 2020 we saw significantly warmer than average sea-surface-temperature anomalies through the tropical Atlantic with cooler temperature anomalies extending northwards into the northern Atlantic the east coast of USA through to southern Greenland. We'll be monitoring the weather patterns themselves to see how they develop through this Autumn. Finally UKMO GloSea5 MSLP anomaly shows deep low pressure to the north Ireland and UK with high pressure to the south and south west. Winter 2020/21 might see a transition from the west to east QBO. Overall the winters following the September pattern matches are mild and dry winters. Slightly cooler than average Sea-Surface-Temperature anomalies persisted to the south of Greenland (though is wasn't as cold here as further south in the north Atlantic) - meaning we didn't quite have a signature for a tripole. TEILEN. inFranken.de erklärt alles Wichtige. A wet and mild month would be favoured. A wet winter is also expected. Looking back through the SST anomaly archives back to 1982 we see that the closest matching years to May 2020 with the Atlantic SST anomalies were May 2017 and May 2019. Three out of four of these winters are cold with one (46/47) severely cold and very snowy. After five updates the swingometer is currently very slightly favouring a milder than average winter by 52% to 48%. The updated solar trackers show that solar activity is continuing to increase but at a very low level. This means the Atlantic should be in a somewhat weakened state this winter and other drivers (ENSO, QBO, the stratospheric polar vortex etc) may be more influential for Winter 2020/21. A mild and wet winter is still also favoured following the top ten snowiest Octobers for Eurasia. Temperature anomalies aren't too far from average and rainfall anomalies are above average in the north.Zonal! These January's look favoured to be cold and snowy. Die Prognose! So a mild (very mild?) The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) remains solidly positive which tells us the atmosphere in the southern Pacific Ocean is in a La Nina state also. 1984/1985 was a cold winter but had a mild December. All Marchs combined reduces the high pressure and brings low pressure back. There's just one more update to go (the thirteenth as well as a final winter 20/21 seasonal model round-up. We start this update by having a look at key analogue "overlap" years - years that appeared in both sets of analogues last week! So with 24 possible candidates we need to narrow the field down some more. All Februarys combined show a flip towards high pressure close to Iceland with low pressure across southern Europe. CFS V2 forecasts a moderate La Nina for winter 2020/21. A very slow start to the 2020 snow cover season indeed! We will find if this weeks eleventh winter 20/21 update moves the swingometer at the start of next weeks twelfth update. Through our updated trackers we also confirm that SC25 is performing in a similar way to the start of SC24 and very weak solar activity can probably be expected to continue for winter 2020/21. GFS ensembles indicate that zonal winds may weaken during the next couple of weeks. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days at least. The 200z height anomaly from Peitao Peng's analogues shows an area of above average heights (high pressure) to the north west of the country which could leave us putting in north westerly winds and possible resulting cold snaps. After two updates so far the swingometer is looking very finely balanced with almost equal chance of a milder than average winter, an average winter or a colder than average winter. JAMSTEC is forecasting a milder than average winter for the UK and Ireland. La Nina is currently at moderate levels and has become rather eastern based. Looking back through the archives we see there are very few years back to 1998 that have more snow over across Russia than 2020 art this point in October and there's no year back to 1998 that has as much Scandinavian snow cover. wetter.net ECMWF extended model predicts an increasing chance of a reversal of zonal winds in January. Overall a cold winter seems likely. After five updates the swingometer is currently very slightly favouring a milder than average winter by 52% to 48%. Part two of the first winter 2020/21 update will be released at 8pm this evening and will focus on august to winter and summer to winter temperature data. At the same time a trough of below average heights (low pressure) sets up over and to the west of the UK and Ireland. This is somewhat unusual as autumn to winter is usually a time when the zonal winds are getting stronger. The MSLP anomaly for CMCC shows high pressure just to the west and south west of the country with low pressure to the north west. Temperature anomalies are forecast to be slightly milder than average while rainfall anomalies have no signal. All winters combined early in the new solar cycle shows a very strong northern blocking signal with HLB (high-latitude-blocking) centered right over Greenland and back into the arctic. The thirteenth and final winter 2020/21 updates (parts one and two) will be released on Sunday and Monday (29th and 30th November). Wetter im Winter 2020/21: Meteorologen warnen erste Prognosen. Looking back through the archives we confirm that the end of October 2020 saw one of the lowest Eurasian snow cover extents back to 1967 although we are still ahead of a few years within the archive. All Januarys combined shows a massive increase in northern blocking with high pressure favoured between Norway and Greenland and a trough of low pressure over and to the south of the country. If it advances quickly could it mean the Siberian High is stronger this Winter 202/21? A mild, Atlantic-driven winter looks probable here with a strong zonal flow and plenty of wet and windy weather expected. All Marchs combined sees the blocking signal strengthen again towards Greenland and so March could favour a return of very cold conditions. The temperature at 10hpa in the stratosphere over the north pole remains slightly cooler than average. Part two of the seventh winter 20/21 update begins looking at again at Eurasian snow cover. All winters combined following a summer CET of 16.0 to 16.4 looks generally mild and wet with a trof of low pressure over the UK and western Europe. 1870/1871 (5 left this one out of the analogues to make it easier to create the charts) 1964/1965 (5) 1995/1996 (5) 2005/2006 (5) 2010/2011 (5) 2013/2014 (5) 2016/2017 (5) 2017/2018 (5) 2019/2020 (5). In Zeiten des Klimawandels werden die Winter durchschnittlich wärmer: Der letzte deutschlandweite Schneefall an Heiligabend wurde 2010 dokumentiert. This brings high pressure to Iceland and low pressure to the Azores. Last winter had one of the strongest positive IOD's on record and was pinpointed as one of the possible causes of the Polar Vortex Of Doom that we had during winter 2019/20. Außerdem soll es wenig bis gar keinen Niederschlag geben - womit die Chancen auf Schneefall weiter sinken. It's looking increasingly likely that the Easterly QBO which started at the beginning of the year has failed (the second E. QBO failure in five years) and the chances of winter 2020/21 being a westerly QBO are growing. All winters combined with a transition from a west to east QBO look generally anticyclonic and probably relatively dry and mild overall. Starting CANSIPS MSLP (Mean-Sea-Level-Pressure) anomaly which shows high pressure sitting juast to the west of the UK and Ireland. Or does it? At the same time colder than average sea-surface-temperature anomalies intensified from the eastern seaboard of America and Canada (especially around New Foundland) and pushing into the central north Atlantic and on to the Norwegian Sea. Out of the two, May 2017 is the closest match to May 2020. We look back at sevral Octobers that had extentsive northern blocking and then explore what the winters were like that followed those October. La Nina has continued to stablize across all ENSO regions. These Janaurys now definitely favour a cold and wintry outcome. The swingometer shows that up to the end of the eleventh winter update we now favour a colder than average winter by 52% to 48% completely reversing the 55% to 45% milder than than average winter that the swingometer was predicting last week! For this video we're going to explain what goes into the winter forecast and all the things we'll be looking over the next twelve weeks. Despite a slight increase in the northern blocking signal these Januarys would generally favour mild and wet conditions. The second part of the second winter 2020/21 update was released on 14th September. Wird das Wetter im Winter 2020/21 in Deutschland wirklich so extrem, wie einige Experten befürchten. Lastly we look at key overlap years - years that appeared in both sets of analogues for this update - which were 1877/1878, 1946/1947, 1955/1956 and 2008/2009. Precipitation anomalies are expected to be drier than average. All Januarys combined shows lower pressure to the north and west. We will find out next week how much the tenth winter update has moved the swingometer. Are colder winters favoured at the start of a new solar cycle? Despite this massive number of storms and tropical storms ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for 2020 is only at 101.36 which is about average. We've had major gains in both Russian and Scandinavian snow cover over the past week. We have seen 31 total storms, 30 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. The QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) is still in weak westerly phase. Der Winter steht bald vor der Tür oder auch nicht. All February and all March combined shifts to much more of an anticyclonic type signal and both months probably favour a much drier and milder pattern overall. Damit wird es wohl auch dieses Jahr kaum wirklich kalte Tage geben. All Marchs combined tends to increase the heights to the east so could be a dry and mild month month again. Part two of the sixth winter 2020/21 update looks at September to winter rainfall data. Sometimes northern blocking in October will flip to southwesterlies and very mild conditions in the winter but other times blocking in October will be a warning from the atmosphere that a cold/blocked winter is ahead. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is acting very strangely with an above average number of total depressions (18) and tropical storms (15) and a relatively high number of hurricanes (15) with (1) major hurricane but a very low number for ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) (40.10) which tells us that despite having a lot of activity so far this season most of these storms aren't transporting much energy from the tropical Atlantic to the mid-latitudes and the ultimately the polar region. All Marches combined could favour easterly winds and all winters combined with a moderate La Nina high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. All winters combined following an august CET range of 17.5 to 19.2 - the warmest autumns on record - favours strong northern blocking from Greenland back to the Arctic with a deep area of low pressure over and to the south of the UK and Ireland. The record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season continues! The 2020 hurricane season continues with a total so far of 25 tropical depressions, 24 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Temperature anomalies are about average and precipitation anomalies have no signal. We've seen major gains in snow cover across Russia this weel The snow line has now pushed to the far west of Russia although Scandinavian snow cover continues to look rather below normal. A mild and wet winter forecast by these two models. Solar activity is at very low levels and is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days with no visible sunspots on the solar disc today. As we begin the northern hemisphere autumn zonal winds at 10hpa over the north pole are very close to average and GFS ensembles indicate that it will stay near normal for the next couple of weeks. ACE (Accumulated Cycle Energy) has now increased at 155.60 and this season is officially Hyperactive - the first Hyperactive hurricane season since 2017. Wir schauen uns heute die aktuelle Winterprognose 2020/21 an. Looking at the Equatorial Pacific Ocean we see the development of La Nina has paused in the past week with very little additional cooling of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies compared to last week. Üblicher waren hingegen Temperaturen zwischen 5 und 10 Grad. All Marches combined also favour high pressure towards Greenland with a wintry end to the winter looking possible. Probably a milder and wetter signal. The SOI (Southern-Oscillation-Index) is still in negative phase (which tells us the atmosphere is still supporting La Nina) although recent days have seen the SOI turn slightly negative which means the atmosphere is more in an El Nino type set up. Meteo France MSLP anomaly has high pressure to the south west and north east of the country. Part two of the ninth winter 2020/21 update looks at La Nina and all the potential various connotations of La Nina on the winter. GWV Autumn 2020 Forecast has been released and so now the long range bandwagon rolls on. Es seien zu viele Faktoren, die noch ungewiss seien. January still had strong northern blocking signals and could be a cold and wintry month with with years before 1950 taken out. Die Prognose! The model forecasts above average rainfall and temperatures for the UK and Ireland for winter 2020/21. All February combined post 1950 also looks to favour a cold month with high pressure to the north and north east of the country. Easterly winds would be more likely here and a cold/wintry month could be favoured. So buckle up because the countdown to the GWV Winter 2020/21 Forecast begins next week - Sunday 6th September - with the first Winter 19/20 Update (Part One). SST (Sea-Surface-Temperature) anomalies have changed little over the past week. All Decembers combined suddenly shows northern blocking favoured which would increase the chance of a colder December. To narrow things down even further Richard looked at years with a borderline neutral to weak La Nins and occurring close to La Nina. We begin the eleventh winter 2020/21 update (part one) looking at the updated swingometer which has been updated to the end of the tenth winter 20/21 update. Out of the teo models GEM is the mildest with NASA having only slightly above average temperatures. All winters combined following an England and Wales precipitation range of 49-59mm post 1950 looks potentially quite cold with high pressure focused to the north and west of the UK and low pressure to the south east. But Richard isn't done there. All January combined and all February combined shows a strengthening northern blocking signal which could favour an increasingly cold pattern as we move towards mid and late winter. The starting point for Richard's presentation to look ay years where April was 3-4C warmer than the preceding March as April 2020 was 3.7C warmer than March 2020. Putting all years together we see that all Decembers combined in our "outside of the box" special has a strong northern blocking signal with low pressure to the south and east of the UK. North-easterly winds pull in cold air from the Arctic and Siberia and can produce a cold Winter for the UK and northern Europe. All winters combined following a summer CET range of 16.0 to 16.4 post 1950 looks rather mild unsettled overall with low pressure in the north Atlantic and high pressure around the Azores favouring westerly winds - keep in mind January could be colder and drier. All januarys combined strengthens the blocking signal across the northern latitudes with a trof of low pressure over and to the south of the UK and Ireland. Have a look at the video to see what these seasonal models are forecasting for Winter 20'/21. All Februarys and Marchs combined flip to low pressure dominated weather with mild and wet conditions favoured. We confirm an increase in solar activity with the updated GWV solar trackers. Westerlies back at the end of the winter perhaps? A very mild winter is forecast and the model also indicates a wetter than average winter too. The refreeze has now commenced as the arctic winter begins to set in. This week we go even further back through northern hemisphere snow cover archives and and go right back to 1967. We we have a range of years from 1874 to 2018 and as you would expect with such a large and diverse range of years we have a lot of different outcomes but putting all years together we do see some clear trends. As strong as the signal is for a cold winter from this reanalysis even with these analogues not every winter is cold.